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CHESS ANALYTICS 03: Karpov vs. Kasparov 1984/85 match

28 Thursday May 2026

Posted by Ripsu-sama in chess, chess analytics

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chess, chess analytics, chess history, engine analysis, expected score, Karpov, Kasparov, Stockfish, WDL evaluation, world championship

  • CHESS ANALYTICS 00: Methods: Measuring World-Championship Roads with Stockfish 18 WDL
  • CHESS ANALYTICS 00.0: List of Other Chess Analytics Articles
  1. 1. Short verdict
  2. 2. Overall metric table
  3. 3. Accuracy, PQ, and dominance
  4. 4. Loss metrics: Karpov slightly cleaner
  5. 5. Standard deviations and stability
  6. 6. Game Accuracy and Mutual Accuracy
  7. 7. Game-by-game metric edge
  8. 8. Phase-by-phase interpretation
    1. Games 1–9: Karpov builds the match
    2. Games 1–27: Karpov’s lead phase
    3. Games 28–48: Kasparov takes over
    4. Games 47–48: the collapse/reversal endpoint
  9. 9. Correlations with game score
  10. 10. Which metric families explain the 25–23 result?
    1. 1. Conversion explains most of the final margin
    2. 2. Expected Score and Dominance explain the underlying edge
    3. 3. Volatility explains Karpov’s stable advantage
    4. 4. RMS ES Loss is more favorable than raw accuracy counts
    5. 5. Error Concentration is almost irrelevant here
  11. 11. Chess interpretation
  12. 12. Final article-style thesis
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CHESS ANALYTICS 00.0: List of Other Chess Analytics Articles

27 Wednesday May 2026

Posted by Ripsu-sama in chess, chess analytics

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Tags

chess, chess analytics, chess history, engine analysis, expected score, performance analysis, performance metrics, Stockfish, WDL evaluation, world championship

  • CHESS ANALYTICS 00: Methods: Measuring World-Championship Roads with Stockfish 18 WDL
  • CHESS ANALYTICS 01: Fischer 1971-72 compared with Karpov 1974
  • CHESS ANALYTICS 02: Karpov vs. Korchnoi 1978 + 1981
  • CHESS ANALYTICS 03: Karpov vs. Kasparov 1984/85 match

more to come

CHESS ANALYTICS 00: Methods: Measuring World-Championship Roads with Stockfish 18 WDL

25 Monday May 2026

Posted by Ripsu-sama in chess, chess analytics

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Tags

chess, chess analytics, chess history, engine analysis, expected score, performance metrics, Stockfish 18, WDL evaluation, world championship

  1. CHESS ANALYTICS 00.0: List of Other Chess Analytics Articles
  1. 1. The Basic Units of the Analysis
  2. 2. Expected Score
  3. 3. Expected-Score Loss
  4. 4. WDL Accuracy
  5. 5. Game Accuracy
  6. 6. Mutual Accuracy
  7. 7. Performance Quality
  8. 8. Dominance
  9. 9. Volatility
  10. 10. RMS Expected-Score Loss
  11. 11. Error Concentration
  12. 12. Score, Expected Score, and Conversion
  13. 13. HardRAP and SoftRAP
  14. 14. How the Metrics Form One Whole
  15. 15. Why WDL Is Preferable Here to Pawn Evaluation
  16. 16. Why This Series Is Worth Doing

This article series studies World-Championship matches and World-Championship qualification runs with a modern engine-based method.

The basic idea is simple:

Put every move of great historical matches under Stockfish 18, translate each position into win/draw/loss chances, and then ask: who preserved winning chances better, who lost chances more often, who created volatility, who converted chances into points, and who stayed more consistent?

Stockfish 18 is far stronger than any human player. Its strength is so far above human World Champions that comparing it to humans by normal Elo becomes difficult. This makes it useful as a reference point: not because it “understands chess like a human,” but because it gives a very strong, consistent measuring stick.

The purpose is not to reduce chess greatness to one number. The purpose is to create a performance profile:

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