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CHESS ANALYTICS 00: Methods: Measuring World-Championship Roads with Stockfish 18 WDL

25 Monday May 2026

Posted by Ripsu-sama in chess, chess analytics

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chess, chess analytics, chess history, engine analysis, expected score, performance metrics, Stockfish 18, WDL evaluation, world championship

  1. CHESS ANALYTICS 00.0: List of Other Chess Analytics Articles
  1. 1. The Basic Units of the Analysis
  2. 2. Expected Score
  3. 3. Expected-Score Loss
  4. 4. WDL Accuracy
  5. 5. Game Accuracy
  6. 6. Mutual Accuracy
  7. 7. Performance Quality
  8. 8. Dominance
  9. 9. Volatility
  10. 10. RMS Expected-Score Loss
  11. 11. Error Concentration
  12. 12. Score, Expected Score, and Conversion
  13. 13. HardRAP and SoftRAP
  14. 14. How the Metrics Form One Whole
  15. 15. Why WDL Is Preferable Here to Pawn Evaluation
  16. 16. Why This Series Is Worth Doing

This article series studies World-Championship matches and World-Championship qualification runs with a modern engine-based method.

The basic idea is simple:

Put every move of great historical matches under Stockfish 18, translate each position into win/draw/loss chances, and then ask: who preserved winning chances better, who lost chances more often, who created volatility, who converted chances into points, and who stayed more consistent?

Stockfish 18 is far stronger than any human player. Its strength is so far above human World Champions that comparing it to humans by normal Elo becomes difficult. This makes it useful as a reference point: not because it “understands chess like a human,” but because it gives a very strong, consistent measuring stick.

The purpose is not to reduce chess greatness to one number. The purpose is to create a performance profile:

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