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CHESS ANALYTICS 04: Kasparov vs. Karpov matches of 1985, 1986, 1987, 1990, plus comparison from 1970s to 1990s

30 Saturday May 2026

Posted by Ripsu-sama in chess, chess analytics

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chess, chess analytics, chess history, engine analysis, Karpov, Kasparov, performance metrics, Stockfish, WDL evaluation, world championship

  • CHESS ANALYTICS 00: Methods: Measuring World-Championship Roads with Stockfish 18 WDL
  • CHESS ANALYTICS 00.0: List of Other Chess Analytics Articles
  1. 1. CHESS ANALYTICS 04 part 1/2: the Kasparov-Karpov matches between 1985-90
    1. 1.1. Short verdict
    2. 1.2. Overall run table
    3. 1.3. Match-by-match comparison
    4. 1.4. 1985 match: Kasparov’s clearest technical victory
    5. 1.5. 1986 match: a near-equal match decided by conversion
    6. 1.6. 1987 match: Karpov’s statistical counterpunch
    7. 1.7. 1990 match: Kasparov reasserts the edge
    8. 1.8. Game Accuracy and Mutual Accuracy
    9. 1.9. Game-by-game metric edge
    10. 1.10. Correlations with score
    11. 1.11. Which metric families explain the overall 50–46 result?
      1. 1.11.1. Expected Score and Dominance
      2. 1.11.2. Accuracy and PQ
      3. 1.11.3. Mean ES Loss and RMS ES Loss
      4. 1.11.4. Volatility
      5. 1.11.5. Conversion
      6. 1.11.6. Error Concentration
    12. 1.12. Overall chess interpretation
    13. 1.13. Article-style thesis
  2. 2. CHESS ANALYTICS 04 part 2/2: comparisons between 1970s to 1990s player metrics
    1. 2.1. Compact chronological table
    2. 2.2. Is there a quality trend?
      1. Yes, especially from Fischer 1971–72 to Karpov 1974 and the 1980s
    3. 2.3. The strongest trend: Mutual Accuracy and PQ rise
    4. 2.4. Mean ES Loss and RMS ES Loss show the trend even better
    5. 2.5. Volatility also drops strongly
    6. 2.6. Standard deviations: later play is usually more stable, but not always
      1. WDL Accuracy SD
      2. Game Accuracy SD
      3. Mutual Accuracy SD
    7. 2.7. Error Concentration does not show a simple historical trend
    8. 2.8. The major exceptions to the trend
      1. Exception 1: Fischer–Spassky 1972 was cleaner than Fischer’s Candidates matches
      2. Exception 2: Karpov–Korchnoi 1978 was unusually rough
      3. Exception 3: Kasparov–Karpov 1990 was rougher than 1984–1987
    9. 2.9. Peak-quality matches by metric
      1. Best WDL Accuracy
      2. Best Game Accuracy
      3. Best Mutual Accuracy / PQ
      4. Lowest Mean ES Loss
      5. Lowest RMS ES Loss
      6. Lowest Volatility
    10. 2.10. Final conclusion
      1. Best formulation
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CHESS ANALYTICS 00.0: List of Other Chess Analytics Articles

27 Wednesday May 2026

Posted by Ripsu-sama in chess, chess analytics

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Tags

chess, chess analytics, chess history, engine analysis, expected score, performance analysis, performance metrics, Stockfish, WDL evaluation, world championship

  • CHESS ANALYTICS 00: Methods: Measuring World-Championship Roads with Stockfish 18 WDL
  • CHESS ANALYTICS 01: Fischer 1971-72 compared with Karpov 1974
  • CHESS ANALYTICS 02: Karpov vs. Korchnoi 1978 + 1981
  • CHESS ANALYTICS 03: Karpov vs. Kasparov 1984/85 match

more to come

CHESS ANALYTICS 00: Methods: Measuring World-Championship Roads with Stockfish 18 WDL

25 Monday May 2026

Posted by Ripsu-sama in chess, chess analytics

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

chess, chess analytics, chess history, engine analysis, expected score, performance metrics, Stockfish 18, WDL evaluation, world championship

  1. CHESS ANALYTICS 00.0: List of Other Chess Analytics Articles
  1. 1. The Basic Units of the Analysis
  2. 2. Expected Score
  3. 3. Expected-Score Loss
  4. 4. WDL Accuracy
  5. 5. Game Accuracy
  6. 6. Mutual Accuracy
  7. 7. Performance Quality
  8. 8. Dominance
  9. 9. Volatility
  10. 10. RMS Expected-Score Loss
  11. 11. Error Concentration
  12. 12. Score, Expected Score, and Conversion
  13. 13. HardRAP and SoftRAP
  14. 14. How the Metrics Form One Whole
  15. 15. Why WDL Is Preferable Here to Pawn Evaluation
  16. 16. Why This Series Is Worth Doing

This article series studies World-Championship matches and World-Championship qualification runs with a modern engine-based method.

The basic idea is simple:

Put every move of great historical matches under Stockfish 18, translate each position into win/draw/loss chances, and then ask: who preserved winning chances better, who lost chances more often, who created volatility, who converted chances into points, and who stayed more consistent?

Stockfish 18 is far stronger than any human player. Its strength is so far above human World Champions that comparing it to humans by normal Elo becomes difficult. This makes it useful as a reference point: not because it “understands chess like a human,” but because it gives a very strong, consistent measuring stick.

The purpose is not to reduce chess greatness to one number. The purpose is to create a performance profile:

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